The Foliage Forecast for the Dolomites
A season-long guide to when, where, and how the larches turn to gold, tracked valley by valley the way Japan tracks its cherry blossoms.
Three things decide when the Dolomites catch fire each autumn, and none of them are fixed dates on a calendar. That’s why a forecast, not a fixed itinerary, is the only honest way to plan a foliage trip up here.
Shortening days
Fewer daylight hours tell trees to stop producing chlorophyll. Cold, crisp (not freezing) nights after warm days bring out the boldest reds and oranges; mild nights mute them instead.
What the season left behind
Color isn’t only made in October. It’s paid for by the water a tree had all spring and summer. A dry year tends to push color earlier, shorter, and browner rather than brighter.
Everyone on their own clock
Birch is usually first to turn, going lemon-yellow while everything else is still green. Beech and maple follow with oranges and rust. The larch (our one deciduous conifer) is last, closing the season in solid gold before dropping its needles entirely.
This hasn’t been an average year
Alto Adige has been running dry since last autumn: roughly a 30% precipitation deficit between October 2025 and now, enough to push the region’s water authorities to a “medium” drought alert through the summer, with snow reserves essentially exhausted by spring and neighbouring Veneto and Friuli faring worse still, at “high” alert.
Winter itself was a study in contrasts: mild overall (roughly 1.5°C above average across December and February), interrupted by a genuinely rare cold snap in the first half of January, when Arctic air dropped temperatures to −18.8°C in Sesto, −20°C in Val di Vizze, and −21.9°C on the Marmolada. Meteorologists called it one of the more extreme cold events of the century so far. It didn’t last: by late January the thaw and rain had returned, and the alpine snowpack ended up among the thinnest in decades regardless.
Then came a hot, dry spring and summer, with repeated heatwaves, glaciers under visible stress, and only a wet June offering real relief before the drought crept back in.
On paper, drought and heat stress tend to push color earlier and mute it. Stressed trees can shrivel and drop before they fully turn, especially at lower elevations. The recent return of rainfall changes that picture slightly: it does not erase the cumulative summer water deficit, but it gives trees more moisture heading into September and makes a very early, uniformly brown finish less likely. If the wetter pattern repeats in September, the outlook for larches improves the most, because they are still several weeks from their main color window.
Bellunese and Friulian Dolomites: this is where the recent moisture signal is most interesting. OSMER recorded 6.0 mm at Sappada on 25 August, while nearby mountain stations recorded 16.7 mm at Piancavallo and 8.2 mm at Monte Lussari. These are useful recharge events, but not enough on their own to call the drought story over. ARPAV also reports that July 2026 averaged 85 mm of rainfall across Veneto, slightly below the 1991–2020 average of 93 mm. In other words: the water balance is improving in places, but the background deficit remains relevant.
The next few days reinforce the same mixed signal. ARPAV expects generally dry weather on 27 August, followed by a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the Bellunese on 28 August. OSMER gives the Carnic mountains around Sappada a 60% probability of widespread precipitation and 80% probability of thunderstorms on 28 August, with a possible snow level around 4000 m. After that, conditions are expected to become more stable again.
September update:
The month confirmed the trend rather than reversing it. Alto Adige ran 2.5–3°C above the 1991–2020 average Hottest day: 33.8°C at Bronzolo, 4 September Coldest day: −2.2°C at Monguelfo, 23 September Southern Alto Adige received only about half its normal September rainfall; the rest of the territory was roughly 10% below Alto Adige ran 2.5–3°C above the long-term average, with the south of the province receiving only about half its normal September rainfall and the rest of the territory roughly 10% below. On the Veneto side, a mild, dry start to the month (highs still touching 33–34°C in the valleys on 8 September) gave way to a brief unsettled spell on 16–18 September the first real rain in weeks across the Dolomiti Bellunesi and Prealpi — before dry, warm conditions returned. The most interesting signal for foliage came between 22 and 26 September, when a proper cool-down finally reached altitude: lows near 0°C at 2000m and down to about −5°C at 3000m in the high Dolomites, the first real autumn chill of the season. By 30 September, though, warmth had crept back in, with forecasters describing conditions as “quasi estivo” (almost summery) to close out the month. Net effect on the forecast: another warm, dry month extends the stress signal built up over summer, which still points to color arriving early and running duller at lower elevations. But the brief, genuine cold snap at altitude in the 22–26 September window is exactly the kind of trigger that can kick-start the larches worth watching closely as October unfolds.During my recent days out:
(October 2nd) it appears that birches will somehow not have that bright yellow tone this year, before turning brown eventually. The extreme heat and drought made leaves turn brown already during the summer. The same goes for a few others deciduos species.Updated 03 October 2026 using the Alto Adige provincial meteorological office (Ufficio Meteorologia e Prevenzione Valanghe) September retrospective and ARPAV Dolomiti/Veneto daily bulletins through September 2026. Foliage timing remains an informed phenology estimate and should be revised as October conditions come in.
Live webcams across the Dolomites
No forecast beats looking out a window. These feeds cover some of the valleys and areas most useful for following the autumn colors.
Track the color
Drag the slider through the season. Each stop shows two readings: broadleaf trees (birch first, then beech and maple) and larch, which always closes the show.
This is a hand-tracked forecast, not a live feed: it’s updated by hand through the season as reports and the webcams above come in. The original dry/warm-season assumption has been softened after the late-August rainfall signal. Positions are illustrative, not to scale.
Want to discover the best places to enjoy the autumn foliage?
Check out the Wildolomites Map!
